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In the field of industrial transmission, lead screws are like joints in the human body, carrying the precise conversion between rotational motion and linear motion. From the precise cutting of CNC machine tools, to the flexible walking of humanoid robots (17.850, 0.60, 3.48%), to the intelligent steering of automobiles, the technological breakthrough of this "industrial joint" is quietly reshaping the competitive landscape of high-end manufacturing.
The core function of the lead screw is to convert rotary motion into linear motion, and its technological evolution has experienced a leap from trapezoidal sliding screw to rolling screw. With a transmission efficiency of 90%-96% (sliding screw is only 30%-40%), rolling screw has become the standard configuration of high-end manufacturing. In recent years, with the acceleration of the localization of industrial machine tools, the popularization of new energy vehicle wire control technology, and the acceleration of the industrialization of humanoid robots, the lead screw, as the lifeblood of precision transmission, has risen simultaneously with technical barriers and strategic value
In 2023, the global ball screw market size will be about US$1.96 billion, and the Chinese market will reach 3.1 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of more than 10% in the past decade. However, the high-end market is still monopolized by German and Japanese giants: Germany's Schaeffler, Japan's THK and NSK account for 90% of China's high-end ball screws; domestic manufacturers account for only 5% of the high-end market and 30% of the mid-range market. As an emerging field, planetary roller screws are expected to exceed $28.9 billion in 2030 due to the adoption of robots such as Tesla Optimus, with a unit price of up to 10,000 yuan/set
The lead screw industry chain specifically includes:
1. Upstream: raw materials and equipment
l Raw materials: ultra-high-strength alloy steel, titanium alloy, ceramic coating; high-end grades are still dominated by German and Japanese steel mills
l Equipment: high-precision CNC thread grinder (error ≤ 1 μm), cyclone milling machine, cold forging machine, laser interferometer, etc
2. Midstream: The trapezoidal lead screw process is mature, and 90% of the production capacity of planetary roller lead screws is in the hands of Swiss Rollvis, GSA and Ewellix
l Trapezoidal lead screw: mature technology, domestic production can be batched
l Ball screw: the localization rate of mid-end is 30%, and the high-end is only 5%
l Planetary roller screw: humanoid robots have the largest increase, with a global share of 90% in Switzerland Rollvis and GSA and other foreign companies.
3. Downstream: The source of future lead screw increment mainly comes from the outbreak of downstream industrial machine tools, automotive intelligence and humanoid robot markets
l Humanoid robots: Since linear actuators account for 19%-25% of the robot cost, Optimus 14 In each joint, the thigh lead screw load is up to 8000 Nm. A single humanoid robot requires 14-22 lead screws (such as Tesla Optimus) to perform the task of driving the whole body joints. If the global sales of humanoid robots reach 1 million units in 2030, it will give rise to more than 45 billion yuan of lead screw demand.
l Machine tools, automobiles: about 10 billion yuan market every year. A single five-axis CNC machine tool needs more than 3 lead screws, with a value of about 3,000 yuan, and the increase in the penetration rate of domestic high-end machine tools will drive the demand for lead screws. At present, the localization rate of high-end machine tool lead screws in our country is less than 10%, and the machine tool lead screw market will exceed 5 billion yuan in 2025 driven by policies. In terms of automobiles, steer-by-wire (EPS), electronic parking (EPB), and brake-by-wire (EMB) systems fully rely on ball screw transmission, and the value of a single vehicle is reached 400-1500 yuan. In 2024, the penetration rate of L2 smart cars has exceeded 60%, and the market has accelerated its volume. The development of intelligent new energy vehicles will promote the penetration rate of ball screws in EPS and EPB, and the automotive market size may exceed in 20308 billion yuan.
l Semiconductor, medical, aviation, etc.: precision requirements are C0-C3, low price sensitivity, highest gross profit, and small market size.
The lead screw industry is experiencing a double leap from "import dependence" to "domestic substitution", from "mechanical standard" to "intelligent core". In the short term, the mass production of humanoid robots and the penetration of automobiles by wire are the core catalysts; In the long run, domestic equipment breakthroughs will reshape the global supply chain pattern. Enterprises with precision manufacturing genes and grinding machine technology leaders are expected to take the lead in benefiting in the 100 billion market.
[Risk warning]: The views in this article are based on the analysis of the market conditions at that time, and do not constitute investment advice or actual investment results for any institution or individual, and do not guarantee that the views and forecasts in them will not be adjusted or changed. The fund manager shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of all or part of the content herein. Investors should carefully read the fund legal documents such as the Fund Contract, the Prospectus, and the Fund Product Information Summary to understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, and judge whether the fund is compatible with the investor's risk tolerance based on its own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status, etc.
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